History says that Michael will lose
It was the subtlest of changes.
Almost undetectable.
But to those of us who are, for better or worse, in the habit of reading or listening to our MP on regular occasions, it was a definite shift...
It was the first time that Michael Foster has admitted that the Conservatives might win the General Election. There in black and white in Friday's Observer – 'Even if the Tories win' he said, 'Hastings needs someone to fight its corner...' going on to suggest that that person should be him.
Fair enough, as it goes. Michael certainly has the experience, having been the MP for Hastings & Rye for the past 13 years. He has worked diligently, and has come through the MPs expenses scandal unscathed.
He has the kind of ultra-loyalist New Labour voting record which I find, personally, objectionable; but why shouldn't Michael feel strongly that he should properly be returned to Westminster..?
All I can say is that if it happens, and I am pretty sure that it won't, it will be the first time in the recent history of the constituency.
Hastings and Rye is known as a bellweather constituency.
For the uninitiated in political nerdery, the 'bellweather' prefix means that the constituency usually returns an MP from the party which forms the Government. I suppose the subtext is that local people hope that their MP will have influence and will deliver for the area.
Michael Foster and local Labour Group leader Jeremy Birch often argue that they have helped Labour to funnel Government millions to Hastings, and that Labour representatives have delivered for Hastings where the Conservatives before them signally failed.
To be honest, I tend to agree. Although how the money has been spent is another discussion altogether...
Sir Ken Warren, whilst a distinguished officer of the Winkle Club, is known for having been a mediocre Conservative MP, with an occasional, passing interest in his constituency.
Jacqui Lait, his successor, was infamous, and is the only one of the constituency's parliamentary representatives to have had her effigy burnt in protest.
We certainly, to coin a phrase, don't need another Jacqui Lait in Hastings and Rye.
However the truth is that, whatever the changeable opinion polls are saying, there are very few people that I meet on the doorstep who are enthusiastic about having another five years of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.
The country is not going to give Labour another five years in office. People want a change.
But they don't trust David Cameron's Conservatives.
A hung Parliament is where the smart money is at the bookies. And it is not a prospect that should worry us. The past thirty years have seen 'strong' Thatcher and Blair governments. They have brought us the Poll Tax, an illegal war in Iraq, and the worst recession for 80 years.
But a hung Parliament can be a bit of a conundrum for a bellweather constituency.
As the ever-irritating Polly Toynbee pointed out unusually well the other day, the country may go for George Osborne as Chancellor, only if it has Vince Cable to give the thumbs up, or the thumbs down on the important decisions.
Which brings us to Hastings and Rye...
Which of the prospective MPs could possibly exert the most influence for local people in a hung Parliament?
The choice must surely be between the Conservative and the Liberal Democrat candidates.
And you won't be surprised to know that I think the best choice is the Liberal Democrat.
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Weather for Hastings
Monday 28 May 2012
Today
Sunny
Temperature: 12 C to 22 C
Wind Speed: 22 mph
Wind direction: South west
Tomorrow
Light rain
Temperature: 11 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 10 mph
Wind direction: West
